Where To Test Roulette Systems Online

The very first step in designing a roulette system is clearly defining what makes it different to random bets. After all, if your system wins just as frequently as random bets, it’s no different to random bets.

But frequency of win mostly depends on the type of bets you make, or more specifically the amount of numbers you cover. This is because on the European world there are 37 numbers, which means the odds of one number winning are one in 37. Of course with the American 00 wheel, the odds of winning are 1 in 38.

Real Wheels Vs Online RNG Wheels

Are real physical roulette wheel is different to the random number generators used by most roulette online casinos?

Yes, absolutely. Obviously real wheels are physical and exist in reality, whether they are viewed live by WebCam, or right in front of you.

Random number generators are what determine the winning number for software roulette. This kind of roulette has no physical roulette wheel. It is just a game, with computer animations. In such a case, there are no physical variables that determine the winning number. There is no dealer to release a ball, because there is no ball.

But can you actually notice any difference in the spin outcomes? This depends on the patterns you are looking at. If you look at something like reds and blacks, odds or evens, then you aren’t likely to notice any difference. But if you consider real physical variables of the real wheel, and correlate them to spin outcomes, then you may very well find real patterns. And I mean patterns that exist not just in your head. If you attempt to look at the same kind of patterns with the random number generator spins, they won’t exist. So the differences depend on what you are looking at. After all if you’re looking at something that doesn’t really exist, you are not going to find it.

Having said that, if the quality of the random number generator is high, then there won’t be any usable patterns. So if you intend to play roulette as a professional, you need to focus on real wheels. If you intend to play with random number generators, then you need to exploit the random number generator itself. You can find flawed random number generators, but they are very difficult to assess because you need potentially hundreds of thousands of spins. Even then, the edge you get may be insignificant.

Investigating Spin Outcome Fairness

Once you have determined where you intend to test your system, you need to assess the fairness of the spins. Generally you can assume that the spins are fair if a real and physical roulette wheel is used. Of course it’s entirely possible that hidden magnets are used to avoid paying you out. But this is highly unlikely, especially at the casino is regulated.

So I’m going to assume you are testing the fairness of random number generator spins. Unfortunately proper tests require hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of spins. This makes proper testing to be quite impractical. But one anomaly you can look out for is that low quality random number generators tend to frequently repeat numbers. This makes them much easier to beat than fair random number generators.

A prime example is Microsoft Excel. What happens is when numbers are randomly generated in an Excel database or spreadsheet, the computer’s internal clock causes many numbers to repeat. Repeats are very obvious, and you might see something like 0, 0, 0, 5, 5, 5, 2, 2, and so on.

So if you are thinking to use Excel to generate random numbers, don’t. You’ll just get an unrealistic idea of the effectiveness of your system.

Likewise, many operating systems tend to have similar flaws. This includes Centos and other operating systems used for websites. But generally, real casinos where real money is wagered do not have these flaws. It is very important to test with realistic spin results.

Beware Of Dishonest Casinos

Many online casinos provide prospective players with free games to test their systems. But there are numerous rogue casinos that give players an advantage in test sessions. The idea is to give players an unrealistic idea of how effective this system is. So when the player wins thousands in test sessions, they believe they’ll achieve the same results when betting for real.

So as a general rule, never test your system and any real casino, or any website that promotes casinos. The exception is if you can somehow verify the fairness of the spinning outcomes.

Online Games and Roulette Simulators

The majority of roulette players use various free online roulette games and simulators to test their systems. The problems with this are they are games that often do not use their random spins. I know one particular online roulette simulator which gives no disclosure regarding the source of spin outcomes. Yet it’s quite popular with gamblers who want to showcase the effectiveness of their system.

The problem with this is the same as testing on any unrealistic game. The random number generator may be flawed, and won’t give you a realistic idea of the effectiveness of the system. This is particularly the case if your system relies on repeating numbers, for reasons previously explained.

Software To Test With

If you intend to use a roulette simulator online, I suggest see https://www.roulettephysics.com/free-roulette-simulator/

Does Your Roulette System Really Work?

Does a winning roulette system exist? Firstly, it depends on your definition of a winning system. If it’s just that the system is capable of winning, this would include any system – including random bets.

But as far as I’m concerned, the only true winning roulette system is one that continues to win, even in the long-term. It’s important to understand that anything can happen in the short term. You may have a brilliant system, but make a loss over only ten spins. It doesn’t mean the system doesn’t work. Likewise, a bad system can win over ten spins, but the results are meaningless.

Almost Every Progression System Wins In The Short Term

A progression system is one that usually increases bet size after losses. The most famous progression system is called the Martingale. Basically after a loss, you double the size of your bet in hopes a win recovers previous losses. A simple example is betting on red. Your initial bet maybe ten units. If you lose, bet twenty units, then forty, and so on. This can continue until the maximum bet is reached, or you run out of funds.

The chances are if you play only a few spins, you will profit. But if you continue to play, you will eventually encounter the streak from hell that wipes out your bankroll, including previous winnings.

Most roulette system progressions are not quite as dramatic. But they still usually revolve around the same principle of increasing bets to cover losses. The important thing to keep in mind is each spin is independent. What happened previously on the roulette wheel has no bearing on future spins. The only exception is if there are tangible physical variables that affect the winning number. One example is roulette wheel bias, where there is a physical defect on the wheel causing some numbers to win more frequently.

Roulette wheel bias is very different to hot numbers. Hot numbers are ones that have won more frequently than others in recent spins. They are inevitable and part of normal statistics. A hot number may continue to be hot, or it may turn cold. Which is more likely? Each case is just as likely as the other. And what you are left with is accuracy no better than random bet selection.

Almost every roulette system based on progression bets will win in the short term. This tricks the player into thinking that their system is “working”. The fact of the matter is you may have profited, but it has nothing to do with the effectiveness of your system. Most roulette systems will profit for a short time, before making a substantial loss. Many players believe the loss is due to something like the casino manipulating spin results. While it may seem this way initially, the truth is again the short term gains are superficial, and will soon be lost.

This doesn’t mean you should only play short-term sessions, then leave after profiting. Consider if one hundred different players applied the same system. Say they all tried the same approach of winning in the short term. Some will win, some will lose. But slightly more players will lose. This slight discrepancy is basically the house edge. The casino doesn’t care who wins or loses. They only care that overall they will profit.

Understanding Statistical Relevance and Variance

As above, I explained that anything can happen in the short term. This is basically what statistical variance is. One hundred spins might seem like a lot to a player. After all, this might be two hours of play in the casino. But to a casino, one hundred spins is nothing. It doesn’t even begin to touch on the realm of statistical relevance.

The term “statistical relevance” basically means whether or not the results are likely to accurately reflect long-term results. For example, your results after ten spins tell you nothing about a system’s effectiveness. In fact, not even one thousand spins is statistically relevant. Generally the results only begin to become relevant after about ten thousand spins. This is ten thousand spins you actually bet on, excluding any spins you skip due to “triggers” (like waiting for 10 reds before betting black). So only spins you bet on count.

Furthermore, a positive result over ten thousand spins is still not particularly statistically relevant. So is there a particular amount of spins that is relevant? How long is a piece of string? I really hate that answer, but it makes a point, which is this:

The more spins you play, the closer your results resemble what happens in the long-term. You can win with random bets over one hundred thousand spins. Most the time, you would lose. But sometimes, you will have profited.

Putting this into context, say there were one thousand players, who each bet on one hundred thousand different spins. 99% of them will lose. But 1% will win. The 99% of players feel their system lost, and that they need to move on. But the 1% are fully convinced that their system works. If this 1% played a further one hundred thousand spins, the chances are they will lose. And they may be convinced that the casino somehow cheated.

To be accurate, the chances are fewer than 1% of players will profit (if the system was no better than random bets). But I’m just using the above values as an example.

Testing at Online Casinos

The Internet is full of online casinos, and it’s hard to know which are honest. Obviously you would not want to pay a new casino in Bitcoin, because the casino might not even have any games, then just run off with your money. Financial institutions have an obligation to process funds only for reputable organisations. It isn’t always the case, but a good start is searching for online casinos that accept PayPal.

The USA is particularly strict with online gambling regulations. So you could take your search further to find roulette PayPal casino USA and related terms. But this alone is not sufficient in determining whether or not a casino is honest. Separate articles on our website have covered this extensively. Basically you must ensure that the casino is properly licensed, and audited to ensure fair games. It is also important to extensively research, to determine if the casino regularly refuses payouts. Payout refusal is a big problem with online casinos. If you win big, you obviously want to keep it. So carefully research a casino’s reputation before depositing funds.

It is also very important to never test your roulette system at an online casino. Firstly, you don’t know if the system works until you have thoroughly tested it. So it makes sense to not test with real money. Secondly, if the casino has a play-for-fun mode, how can you trust it? Numerous blatantly dishonest online casinos have rigged such games to ensure you win. No real money is involved. It is just a dirty trick used by some casinos to make you think your system works, and you should start betting real money. Of course when you start betting for real, you lose.

Many system players do not understand you must only test on spins you know are independent and unbiased. But even then, some random number generators can be seriously flawed. This therefore gives you an unrealistic assessment of the effectiveness of your system.