Does Your Roulette System Really Work?

Does a winning roulette system exist? Firstly, it depends on your definition of a winning system. If it’s just that the system is capable of winning, this would include any system – including random bets.

But as far as I’m concerned, the only true winning roulette system is one that continues to win, even in the long-term. It’s important to understand that anything can happen in the short term. You may have a brilliant system, but make a loss over only ten spins. It doesn’t mean the system doesn’t work. Likewise, a bad system can win over ten spins, but the results are meaningless.

Almost Every Progression System Wins In The Short Term

A progression system is one that usually increases bet size after losses. The most famous progression system is called the Martingale. Basically after a loss, you double the size of your bet in hopes a win recovers previous losses. A simple example is betting on red. Your initial bet maybe ten units. If you lose, bet twenty units, then forty, and so on. This can continue until the maximum bet is reached, or you run out of funds.

The chances are if you play only a few spins, you will profit. But if you continue to play, you will eventually encounter the streak from hell that wipes out your bankroll, including previous winnings.

Most roulette system progressions are not quite as dramatic. But they still usually revolve around the same principle of increasing bets to cover losses. The important thing to keep in mind is each spin is independent. What happened previously on the roulette wheel has no bearing on future spins. The only exception is if there are tangible physical variables that affect the winning number. One example is roulette wheel bias, where there is a physical defect on the wheel causing some numbers to win more frequently.

Roulette wheel bias is very different to hot numbers. Hot numbers are ones that have won more frequently than others in recent spins. They are inevitable and part of normal statistics. A hot number may continue to be hot, or it may turn cold. Which is more likely? Each case is just as likely as the other. And what you are left with is accuracy no better than random bet selection.

Almost every roulette system based on progression bets will win in the short term. This tricks the player into thinking that their system is “working”. The fact of the matter is you may have profited, but it has nothing to do with the effectiveness of your system. Most roulette systems will profit for a short time, before making a substantial loss. Many players believe the loss is due to something like the casino manipulating spin results. While it may seem this way initially, the truth is again the short term gains are superficial, and will soon be lost.

This doesn’t mean you should only play short-term sessions, then leave after profiting. Consider if one hundred different players applied the same system. Say they all tried the same approach of winning in the short term. Some will win, some will lose. But slightly more players will lose. This slight discrepancy is basically the house edge. The casino doesn’t care who wins or loses. They only care that overall they will profit.

Understanding Statistical Relevance and Variance

As above, I explained that anything can happen in the short term. This is basically what statistical variance is. One hundred spins might seem like a lot to a player. After all, this might be two hours of play in the casino. But to a casino, one hundred spins is nothing. It doesn’t even begin to touch on the realm of statistical relevance.

The term “statistical relevance” basically means whether or not the results are likely to accurately reflect long-term results. For example, your results after ten spins tell you nothing about a system’s effectiveness. In fact, not even one thousand spins is statistically relevant. Generally the results only begin to become relevant after about ten thousand spins. This is ten thousand spins you actually bet on, excluding any spins you skip due to “triggers” (like waiting for 10 reds before betting black). So only spins you bet on count.

Furthermore, a positive result over ten thousand spins is still not particularly statistically relevant. So is there a particular amount of spins that is relevant? How long is a piece of string? I really hate that answer, but it makes a point, which is this:

The more spins you play, the closer your results resemble what happens in the long-term. You can win with random bets over one hundred thousand spins. Most the time, you would lose. But sometimes, you will have profited.

Putting this into context, say there were one thousand players, who each bet on one hundred thousand different spins. 99% of them will lose. But 1% will win. The 99% of players feel their system lost, and that they need to move on. But the 1% are fully convinced that their system works. If this 1% played a further one hundred thousand spins, the chances are they will lose. And they may be convinced that the casino somehow cheated.

To be accurate, the chances are fewer than 1% of players will profit (if the system was no better than random bets). But I’m just using the above values as an example.

Testing at Online Casinos

The Internet is full of online casinos, and it’s hard to know which are honest. Obviously you would not want to pay a new casino in Bitcoin, because the casino might not even have any games, then just run off with your money. Financial institutions have an obligation to process funds only for reputable organisations. It isn’t always the case, but a good start is searching for online casinos that accept PayPal.

The USA is particularly strict with online gambling regulations. So you could take your search further to find roulette PayPal casino USA and related terms. But this alone is not sufficient in determining whether or not a casino is honest. Separate articles on our website have covered this extensively. Basically you must ensure that the casino is properly licensed, and audited to ensure fair games. It is also important to extensively research, to determine if the casino regularly refuses payouts. Payout refusal is a big problem with online casinos. If you win big, you obviously want to keep it. So carefully research a casino’s reputation before depositing funds.

It is also very important to never test your roulette system at an online casino. Firstly, you don’t know if the system works until you have thoroughly tested it. So it makes sense to not test with real money. Secondly, if the casino has a play-for-fun mode, how can you trust it? Numerous blatantly dishonest online casinos have rigged such games to ensure you win. No real money is involved. It is just a dirty trick used by some casinos to make you think your system works, and you should start betting real money. Of course when you start betting for real, you lose.

Many system players do not understand you must only test on spins you know are independent and unbiased. But even then, some random number generators can be seriously flawed. This therefore gives you an unrealistic assessment of the effectiveness of your system.